The Pre is emerging as a polarizing device, even more so than the G1 (which everyone agreed was kind of beta), probably because it’s the closest thing to a legitimate threat that the iPhone has faced. Who wouldn’t get defensive? With strong sales in its first two weeks and an entirely new OS for developers to do their thing with, it’s strong out of the gate but controlled — because the jockey is holding the reins tight. Palm didn’t expect a dynamite launch or a million app sales in a week; what they’ve got so far is, if we can believe what they say, pretty much what they’d hoped for.
Of course, the TechCrunch network is a treasure trove (a rat’s nest, some would say) of opinions, and we have been known to attack the Pre (savagely and repeatedly) despite our interest in it. The app sales numbers for the Pre need more context than a direct comparison to the iPhone App Store, but that is an important data point, so let’s do it thoroughly.
The Palm Pre launched strongly with at least 50,000 sales in its first weekend, and as many as 100,000. If we assume a steady pickup rate (supported by the unchanging slope of the Medialet downloads chart), we’re probably looking at almost the rumored maximum of 150,000 units sold. It’s a liberal estimate, but let’s just use it.
Now let’s look at the iPhone’s sales. On March 6, when the App Store was announced, there were over 5,500,000 iPhones out there, and by the time the App Store launched in June, I’m estimating there were an additional 2,000,000 sold at the very least.
So the user base of the App Store was ~7,500,000 phones when it launched. The launch user base of the Palm store was zero — same as the Android Marketplace, which is doing just fine, thank you. This isn’t a throwaway statistic, it’s the main problem with the comparison. An established user base approaching 10 million people and growing the way a hit year-old phone should is more than a slight advantage, it’s a game-changer. So let’s get proportionate.
By the end of the month, the iPhone App Store had 60 million downloads from 7-8 million users; by the end of this month, Pre users will have downloaded around a million apps, from a total user base of less than 150,000. I really don’t think that’s quite so bad as it’s been made out to be. If you look at the number of apps downloaded per phone, you get about 6 or 7 per Pre and about 7 or 8 per iPhone.
One might even say (if one were so inclined) that considering the number of apps available and the number actually downloaded for both, the Pre is doing better. I’m not saying it, but I am saying that one could say it if one wanted to.
The limitations on the Palm App Catalog are significant — but limiting who has access to the SDK is both a design and a business decision that Palm was prepared for. The number of apps will grow, and the quality will be high because of the bar Palm is setting. The “real” App Catalog will be launching in a few months, so there’s that to look forward to as well. Of course, it’ll open up the App Catalog to the kind of trash apps that make up the majority of the App Store and Android Marketplace, but that’s what people are demanding.
If I’m honest, what we’re really looking at here is a bunch of fantasy numbers, Photoshop math, and estimated statistics that can be interpreted in several different ways. But not all of us are looking for ways to show the Pre is failing; a contentious issue like this needs to be looked at from both sides. How do you see it?
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Great analysis and a fair one as well.
My biggest issue with MG’s article was that he was comparing Apples to Oranges (:-) no pun intended).
Lets see how the Pre Store does 6 months from now and not announce its death yet.
Right, but my main point wasn’t really to compare the two, that’s just how the post started because it’s an obvious comparison to make, if not exactly fair. But reading further from “so why is that” – the main point was that Palm needs to get its shit together and open up the SDK ASAP.
You ask how it’s going to be doing 6 months from now, my bet is not too hot in terms of number of apps available.
I never declared the death of Palm, but moreso than a lot of these other companies they need the Pre to be a big hit. And for a phone to be a big hit these days, it needs a robust app store. The App Catalog is anything but and that’s not going to change anytime soon as I see it, thanks to Palm. That’s all I was saying.
I agree that Palm needs to get their shit together and open the SDK to developers.
I do, however, disagree that there needs to be a huge app catalog for that platform to succeed? How much crap actually exists on the iPhone app catalog? TC did a story about how the App Store’s main problem is that it is very difficult to find good apps and how the developers themselves are starting to press Apple into modifying listings and creating other categories.
Depending on what the purpose of the phone is and who it is marketed to, quality might win over quantity in this case. Look at the BlackBerry as an example. Not too many apps, but still a very successful device. The Pre could play in that arena as well.
The Pre has a viable market that does not necessarily require thousands of Apps. I personally would like to see quality over quantity.
MG: http://pdnblog.palm.com/2009/06/an-update-on-the-early-access-program-and-the-sdk/
There’s a reference for the SDK time-table.
MG, you SHOULD have an agenda. You should have an editorial goal that determines the overall tone of your coverage.
The only correct overall tone/agenda is Multi-Platform competition:
1. it reduces costs
2. serves tech development and tech investment
3. keeps your work from looking like an advertorial
And your work, sentence by sentence, while it is definitely your fair opinion and your fair analysis… but you don’t error on the side of:
encouraging competitors to iPhone / Apple
encouraging competitors to GOOG search
And TC certainly could be a CrossFire style blog… where certain writers have certain agendas, but if thats to be the case, you shouldn’t claim you’re not the GOOG/APP fanboy… you should don the Ayatollah singlet, and be the bad guy in the storyline with Gusto!
http://bit.ly/7DLCp
As per rule, 10% of apps make for 90% of sales. So if they have best selling apps in their store, it is as good.
Thanks! Great article!
Devin Coldewey, you are the man!
Thanks! This is an intersting article.
Worth to read… Thanks…
Finally someone talking sense and comparing it without being biased towards apple.
Great article. It’s nice to see unbiased journalism on TC.
Finally!!!
People talk about the iphone having a bigger launch in number of sales than the Pre. But if i am not mistaken, iphone was the first of its kind in terms of a smartphone. Nothing at the time came close. Now fast foward to june 6 pre launch and you have people already used to this sort of smartphone. Granted Pre added additional things(multitaskoing,syncing cloud,backup ) but for the most part Iphone has done much of it already. So considering this to be the case i think Pre has done phenomenal outa the gate with sales. And unless iphone does some major changes they will become second to the pre. Read Anantech detail review….
Im glad you posted this just after MGs article to balance the argument. reading both gives the full picture!
Yes, as usual, the truth lies somewhere in between…
but who can tell this early in the game? The best we can do is speculate, I’m just leaning more positively than MG on this front.
The number of apps in the iPhone app store when the iPhone launched: 0. 6 months later: 0. 11.9 months later? 0.
I’m an iPhone user, but I would love to see Palm emerge as a strong competitor to keep Apple both honest and innovative.
My concern is simple, how many people are returning the Pre to get their $299 refunded in the first 30 days (I know there’s a $100 rebate, but they did have to shell out the $299 up front), so they can buy a now $99 iPhone 3G (same 8Gb memory, much bigger app store) after the Apple announcement the following Monday.
I think we need to wait 45 days to see accurate net sales figures to make sure the Palm is launching as well as is being reported.
If Palm had been doing their job instead of napping, Apple might not have leapfrogged them and then turned around and laughed?!? Too little too late, sorry Palm and Sprint.
What a breath of fresh air. Finally TC is trying to become a more sensible source of information.
MG’s bias is so blatant, ignorant and ill-conceived that I find myself avoiding his hate or admiration filled posts. Granted, reading yours means I will have to subject myself to yet another piece of MG dross just to gain context, but I assume your analysis will make his post sound even more feeble than usual, so I might just enjoy it.
Thank you kindly.
Why bother looking for the iPhone killer. I did that with the iPod killers and everyone of them sucked. I wasted more money chasing promises instead of getting the real deal.
The iPhone is the brightest screen, best OS, most apps, and worth every penny. Now, wait until next year when AT&T loses their grip. Watch the iPhone have total domination with Verizon.
As a palm Pre user (my bro has iphone) i absolutely love this device. It just does more. Plain and simple. Yes it has hang ups BUT IT JUST CAME OUT. One could say Palm should have done more, but every phone has bugs at launch. Having gone from a “dumbphone” to this i am not sure if i would use all the stuff this or any smartphone can do. That is what i have to justify in the next 30 days of my return period. Do i really want people to get a hold of me? (MY WIFE)…
I listen to pandora – i surf the net – i shoot of email and chat at the same time – therefore i PRE
Exactly. I got my Prē on launch day, and I don’t miss my iPhone a bit. Sure, it has some rough edges to be smoothed out, but I already find it more useful than the iPhone.
I also like how the browser doesn’t crash all the time.
Everything is a matter of perspective.
The Palm Pre is launching at a time when there is already an established player in the space with a massive user base and a large app store(putting BB, android to 1 side for the moment). When the iPhone launched, there really wasn’t anything comparable – arguably it created a new genre.
So comparing the trajectories of the 2 at similar points in their life is of limited use. The Palm Pre is going to need to hit the ball out of the park to get anywhere close to the user base or app store size of the iPhone. I think that’s what MG was saying.
Of course, it all depends how you define success. If that’s beating the iPhone, I don’t think what we’ve seen so far from the Palm Pre that’s likely. If it’s a solid number 2, offering some different strengths for different users then it’s probably been a good start.
MG,
The first post on this was terribly biased and I certainly appreciate your ability to admit the bias and provide a more detailed and balanced comparison. Keep up the good work!
Thanks,
Joey
Huh? Please see who the author is of this article. MG is as biased as ever.
I’d love to see more articles like this one – or at least more “second opinions”…
If we are being proportionate, aren’t we assuming that there are around 8 million Pre (and or WebOS) users in two years? I’m not convinced that is the case.
App download per user is just as relevant as iTunes download per user. It’s not relevant at all. It doesn’t matter if it’s 2 apps or 22 songs per owner, it matters that 20% of your users are voracious consumers and you are still selling expensive devices to 80% of the wider mainstream marketplace.
Nothing is showing me that Android or Pre are truly capable of that intense appeal but for a very small audience.
Much more relevant is apps x,y,z days after app store opening (and/or SDK being released). Palm is making it difficult to measure that. How many users can a dev reach, how much money can they make, how many apps are out there, how many am I willing to buy, can I choose from 10 of one app, etc…. Not, do I use 5 or 180 of them.
Presuming Pre future growth to be proportionate with iPhone/iPod Touch growth is not only overly opposite but quite plainly wrong.
I wish Google and Palm luck and see advantages to their different strategies, but neither appear, so far and in the future, capable of what Apple has already achieved. I remember Apple’s lean times. It is possible to survive through a marginal or lesser position to become dominant. Maybe I’m not seeing past the beginning game.
I guess we’ll see in 2, 3, 5, 10 years.
overly opposite? I meant optimistic.
8 million after 2 years? Don’t you mean ONE, dumbass?
You okay, tim?
The Pre isn’t going to catch up to the iPhone, Android, Blackberry or Windows Mobile. Period.
The best it can possibly hope for is #5, ahead of Nokia with its Ovi store.
Android is coming out on over 20 phones this year, more than you can shake a stick at, has the second largest app store and is backed by Google’s billions of dollars of resources and investment.
Blackberry because its simply everywhere and the most popular smartphone.
iPhone has a huge lead and huge marketing muscle.
Windows mobile even though it sucks, Microsoft is one of the world’s largest technology companies has plenty of resources and money.
Palm… well in December 2008 it had a stock valuation of $2.30 and in the past two weeks sold around 150,000 units. Not good.
Is Palm, Apple, RIM, Microsoft, and Google all having their own application technologies good for the world? Why don’t these CES companies figure it out, and create a common platform?
Once you have the application, how do you get ahead of the rat race in the app stores of each of these firms to get your app discovered? We’ve create an application network for PC applications at W3i (http://www.W3i.com). Is there an application network model in mobile?
finally, a fair comparison! I’m an iPhone user and big iPhone fan, but even I get a touch annoyed by the pro-iPhone media. Palm is doing great, and I hope they keep it up. They’ll force software updates on the iPhone to keep up (backgrounding, anyone?)
That being said, Palm needs to open up the SDK to the little guys. They’re the ones that make the App(le) Store a great place. Not the big guys.
Everyone is harping the fact that the iphone does not multi-task. The iPhone does multi-task but Apple limited to their own apps. Apple chose longer battery life over 3rd party multitasking. Can you blame them? The biggest weakest with the Pre is the battery life, despite having an OLED screen with the same processor.
Apple could compromise by permitting a certain number of 3rd party apps to multitask. Let the users choose which apps they want to multitask.
Guess which phone is actually faster? The iPhone wins hands down over the Pre.
http://www.anandtech.com/gadgets/showdoc.aspx?i=3587
WebOS is great. It is hard to imagine that it won’t be popular among developers once SDK opens up. All of us who were given a chance to develop WebOS apps for Pre catalog like WebOS a lot. It is one of those things that you just know will have a great future.
Also, keep in mind that WebOS is perfectly suited for enterprise applications. If all plays well Pre may become strong competitor to Blackberry in the enterprise market. iPhone enterprise market is non-existent and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a large number of enterprise WebOS apps in addition to consumer ones.
Who really cares? All this squabbling is annoying. For those that like videos and game playing and a large music library, they’re going to the iphone. I personaly have used it and didn’t find that it suited my needs.
I have decided to go with the Pre, I do a lot of business, multitasking is very much needed to make time and organization more efficient and its integration with the internet capabilities is exactly what I am looking for. If it wasn’t, who knows, I’d probably go with the iPhone. But give it a rest, people. Palm will do fine. They are targeting a completely different demographic than the iPhone. iphone is more friendly for 10 year olds and up. Palm has a more business minded model and has done amazing with the new platform its established and will polish and they will build a strong following. They can’t blow iPhone out, again, the user base for iPhone is wider.
It makes no sense all this fighting, people will buy what suits their needs.
Palm might have a chance if it can survive long enough for Sprint to go out of business allowing Verizon to acquire them.
Its like boxing, Being renewed yer like come on I can take the champ(”Apple”).
But he? you gotta proof yourself all over again so take on the others small fry show them your still in the game. Yeah they probably think yer a “Big mouth now”. You feel cocky, You don’t know actually like walking on a glass floor you do.
Yer confident in control no looking back, Look at them yer fans they cheer for you. No more mistakes.
Thats it let go that false sense of control just go “All Out”. The more freedom yer fan base gets the bigger yer popularity asset, Yeah pump those muscle as you do they will to control that.
Pre can count US sales only. I think when you are on the verge of bankrupcy and decide that your savour phone would be CDMA, then you may call it act of lunacy.
I think the Pre has to be a huge hit for Palm to be relevant once again (let alone an iphone killer) and these numbers don’t spell “smash hit”.
You missed one assumption. While you added 2 million iphone users after the first month of the Apple app store being online, you never went back to add the number of Pre users at the end of the month. You simply stopped at 150,000. Unfortunately, I couldn’t quite determine what date your 150,000 unit guess is for, so i’m left assuming you meant “to-date”.
If that is the case, than even a small increase in users will mean a dramatic decrease in apps/user.
If that is accurate, you might want to consider running an update with the new numbers, I think you’ll be quite surprised to see the comparison is not accurate.
Great article nonetheless…Thanks!
Nice article. I’m still not buying into the Pre hype. I guess the numbers speak for themselves, but I have yet to find even 1 person in my network that actually has a Pre (let alone is on Sprint). My guess is it’s still only reached the early tech/gadget lovers, but I have trouble seeing the Pre hitting mainstream status and becoming as sexy and cool as the iPhone, especially when it comes to the all-mighty teeny-bopper crowd.
I rarely see any numbers of the Blackberry App World. As a Verizon wireless customer, unfortunately neither the Pre or the iPhone are relevant to me (yet!), but would be interested to see how the Bberry App World has been doing..
Super palm …..”
Assuming the Pre is as good as most reviews indicate; the only way for Palm to have a realistic shot at the iPhone is to think global. After all, India and China are the hottest cellphone markets right now. For that the GSM Pre is imperative; sooner rather than later.
fAssuming the Pre is as good as most reviews indicate; the only way for Palm to have a realistic shot at the iPhone is to think global. After all, India and China are the hottest cellphone markets right now. For that the GSM Pre is imperative; sooner rather than later.
Sorry for the duplicate comment.
Wow, a pro-Pre article on TC? Fair journalism?? Does this mean your stipend from Apple will be less than usual this month? :)
Sorry this article is missing some details.
The app store was launched July 10th 2008 not sometime in June. The app started taking in apps May 30th 2008 with 5 apps starting and in the next 40 days grew to 632 apps. By the time the app store opened there were an estimated 6 million iPhones in circulation world wide with at least that number of iPod Touch units. So the application sales figures are for ALL App sales not just iPhone App sales. Meaning that 60 million application downloads in a month are shared 12 million+ units.
However, the numbers are problematic because Apple doesn’t distinguish between iPhone and iPod. In some cases it lumps iPhone sales with iPod sales and in other cases it lumps iPod Touch sales in with iPhone sales. It doesn’t provide any clear cut numbers as to how many iPod Touch units it’s actually sold versus non-touch iPods versus iPhones.
Another problem is that Apple sells apps on two platforms. One is a phone and one is not. Palm doesn’t have that distinction. It’s only selling one product, a phone. It hasn’t had a year to generate interest and get developers on board. It isn’t building the Pre off an already successful product line (e.g. iPod). And it doesn’t have deep pockets and a huge marketing budget. Palm is a tiny company compared to Apple. So no amount of number wrangling is going to create a “fair” comparison.
http://poweredbysteam.com/2009/01/iphone-sales-by-quarter/
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rDayu8yMUyMZo0r92-R3KBQ
Devin Coldewey, Kudos to you and perhaps MG will learn from your article on how to be a fair journalist instead of a myopic pundit that he is.
MG, I also suggest that you actually buy or at least use a Pre for an extensive period of time before you and preface your articles that you either have or haven’t to obtain some legitimacy in your posts. Otherwise, if someone like myself checks out your personal blog http://parislemon.com/ , you just come across merely being an Apple fanboi that obviously has some type of agenda to pew pew the competition for no reason because his choice in toys isn’t the clear one any more. I for once am happy that we have alternatives.
Honest and balanced. Some of these Iphone weirdos are living in a “apple” world. Sorry that is not Real world. I like some things apple does. But I try not to be fanatical. Thank you for an honest article.