Really? Who could have guessed? I’m not an official big-shot analyst by any stretch, but I’m pretty sure that I could have made the same conclusion, as could anyone who knows anything about technology trends (like spoiled teenagers). But alas, an actual organization, Telecom Trends International (who?), has just released a report saying that smartphones will indeed overtake “regular” phones by 2015. Gotta love these glimpses into the future.
This report, which includes 27 figures and 19 tables (for the record), says that sales of smartphones surpass “regular” phones in 2015 and will constitute two-thirds of total mobile handset sales by 2016. The thing is, how do we even know what will separate (if there is still even a distinction) “smart” phones from “non-smart” phones some five years ahead of time? Sure, in today’s world of smart and dumb phones, we analysts can make predictions of this sort. But these type of prognostications tend to leave a bad taste in my technology-loving mouth.
The thing with mobile phones, and technology in general, is that they are forever changing/morphing/evolving. Predicting that smartphones will overtake “regular” phones in 2015 is no different than me saying, “tablets will surpass ‘traditional’ laptops in 2012″ – both are purely nonsense. While maybe while maybe factually accurate (in today’s world), these types of reports and findings seem to assume that the world can’t possibly change over the course of five years. A ridiculous notion, given the insane exponential curve of Internet/computer technology enhancements over the last 25 years.
With all this in mind, I am going to go out on a limb and prophesize* that by 2015 all handsets on the market will be considered “smart” phones by today’s standards. In other words, given the rapid development of next-gen networks and handsets, 99% of all mobile devices by 2015 will not fit in any of today’s “categories” as all mobile phones will have crossed the “smart” threshold by that time, thus making reports like this meaningless.
Pretty much in agreeance with you.
There is very little difference these days between the features on say a iphone ($800…yes that’s how much they cost cash) and a $150 phone. They both take pics, do emails, let you watch vids and play music. You can also download apps on them.
In fact I have to not agree with you because you say 2015 all phones will be considered smart. I think we’re seeing the last of the dumb phones this year.
where on earth did you grab the price of an iphone from? because i can assure you that my iphone was significantly lower than that.
Havent they already ? seems like they have since everyone I know has a smartphone.
unless they are time travelers, no way to know .. or care.
Yeah good question what will seperate smartphones from non smartphones.
Is it the
operating system
form factor
memory.
Any current phone can be considered a smartphone when comparing to a phone from 3 or 4 years ago.
I doubt what is considered a smartphone in 2015 will over take nonsmartphones.
The main reasons for that are Africa, Asia excluding South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong and the Americas excluding the USA, Canada, Bermuda, Greenland & French Guiana.
The majority of the population of those areas can not afford a smartphones and they are a ever growing percentage of the cell phone market. unless the prices of smartphones along with the price of plans decrease to the current prices of non smartphones in every way they wont over take them.
They may over take in some countries but the article does not state which countries so that implies all and they wont over take all so it can never be 99 percent.
The boundary is fading so it’s difficult to say what constitutes a smartphone and a dumbphone now. I prefer Nokia’s term of ‘convergence device’ which really means a device that has multiple functions and can perform new ones should the correct software be selectively installed.
Good point. The definition of smartphone keeps changing but the minimal definition includes: (1) an OS; and (2) a mobile browser. I would argue that it also must run advanced applications (email, calendar, etc.) and for me have a QWERTY keyboard. And the mobile browser cannot be useless either..but I am probably nitpicking…