In the end, Google and Android will own the smartphone market. It won’t happen this year and it may not even happen in 2012 but the day is coming when Android becomes the de facto standard for smartphones.
This we know: Multiple manufacturers have reported that Android phones are on the way including up to five from Motorola this quarter and a number from Samsung this year. Google also has a number of handsets in for testing and should be rolling them out after the Nexus One.
While product in pipeline is also nice, I think the real value is in the software. At CES we saw Dell and Lenovo releasing Android phones running Android but without – and this is important – major Google branding or applications. This is, in the end, why Android will soon rule the roost: carriers can remove functions as it sees fit, thereby creating entirely new versions of the OS and UI for their own purposes.
The only problem? Google’s control of the OS pipeline. Various sources have complained that Google controls which OS version various manufacturers are allowed to use and the result is a segmented market with potentially fractured OS trees. However, in the end, the carriers and the manufacturers have control over the OS.
What’s going to happen to also-rans like Windows Mobile? I suspect manufacturers will roll mobile features into future desktop/laptop OSes, leading to a convergence of functionality for mobile Windows devices into Windows 7. Why have a dumbed down Windows Mobile when most devices are powerful enough to run a version of Windows 7? Microsoft is not out of the game, but as a mobile OS provider their days are numbered.
I hope Google (htc) will update the G1/2 also because of multitouch.
Please Google, come one. It makes no(t so) fun without mt
I have been reader of TC for over 8 years and this takes the place of the lamest article on TC. Kiddish. Not backed by facts. Just some random speculation. btw, I am not a fan of iphone.
this fact puts it in a category along with almost all techcrunch posts. amature hour crunch.
Yes in time, but let’s not forget that Apple is not a blind-dog not watching this competition exploded.
There has been a lot of hype and tension erupted after the unveiling of the nexus one. Today, we are seeing some of the errors and glitches that a future user may want to look before buying the N1 phone. As they said, 530 USD has never became cheap. Details: http://bit.ly/nexus-one-disadvantages-compiled-details
Yeah… And 2 ETF if a user cancels their contract. This is actually the first article written about the mobile space with not 1 reference to Apple. Maybe times are changing…
This article once again shows, how most of the people in US think about Nokia and Symbian. The article doesn’t mention about Nokia and Symbian nor most of the commenters. Everyone is counting out Nokia and Symbian being ignorant about what is happening behind the curtains.
Symbian Foundation already has many manufacturers and carriers in their kitty and will be getting more once Symbian^4 handsets start rolling out in the market in 2011 Q1. They already have more members than Android had when it was released by Google. Most of the big manufacturers and carriers are not going to stick with just one OS.
You should make predictions at the end of 2011.
or was this article about smartphone dominance in US only? or was it about world-wide dominance?
Most people that buy Symbian phones buy a Nokia phone that just “happens to have Symbian.” With android people choose more purposefully. Right now android has more features, apps and “smart” than any other OS (excluding the iPhone, which cannot be installed onto other devices than the iPhone).
That’s not entirely true.
Yes, most of the symbian phones are Nokias but also Samsung and SonyEricsson. Majority of Nokias till 2003/2004 were lower end and not smartphone unlike now.
Also remember, Symbian was not open source till 2008. It is now open source and hence you will see more manufacturers adopting Symbian in 2010 and the main momentum will be in 2011.
Symbian may be late in the game, but it was so ahead of everyone earlier that it can still make up for the loss, if they execute the plan properly. Its a big “if”, but odds are it will execute properly.
And ya, also about features, i guess you are not still aware that Symbian by far has the most customization possible even in its current form and also has more features and apps than Android and is available in the maximum number of form-factors like Windows mobile, more than Android or iphone OS.
Most people currently buying Android phones, buy HTC, which happens to have Android? (What do you say about that? )
In its current state, Symbian is a pain in the arse to use compared to Android.
Actually, most people buy Nokias because they work. A segment of people buy other phones because they’re fashionable.
Indeed. Normal consumers don’t even know what a mobile OS is. They don’t care about Android/ Symbian / App ect. They all know about the cellphone brand. And right now, those phones people are buying are using Symbian.
I think this article is right on the money. As for Apple, I’m not sure one mfgr, one software supplier can possibly compete with a hardware agnostic, open platform like Android. In fact, it’s looking like Android may just steamroll everyone else. In short order they will have 4-5 really nice phones on pretty much every carrier. By the end of the year, there may be 10-15 Android phones on each carrier, blanketing the price spectrum. Some may even be free (w contract.) Why not?
Short of Apple introducing a lineup of 3 new stunning iPhones of varying prices, on every single carrier, by the middle of the year, the number of Android phones in the wild, I think, could well surpass the iPhone before the year is out, certainly by sometime in ‘11.
To which one can only reply, “So?”
The fact that some other OS may “own” most of the smartphone marketplace is as meaningless as the fact that some other OS “owns” most of the desktop and notebook marketplace.
Apple sells and will continue to sell a high end product that many people own and will continue to buy, be it an iPhone or an iMac.
While I’d like Symbian to remain successful (I’m a Nokia 5800 user) I suspect it will lose out to Android for a specific reason – Symbian will never be on anything but phones (and not even top tier ones according to Nokia), whereas we’re already seeing Android on phones, set top boxes, netbooks, tablets, media players, etc, etc.
And being Linux-based, Android benefits from being part of a much bigger ecosystem, where there are tools, libraries, apps, technologies, techniques and drivers (well..) for everything.
The punter will want increasingly Android because it’s what they’re used to, and because of what it can do, and Symbian will be squeezed out until even Nokia gives up on it for everything but dumbhones.
And Android will be what finally gives Linux mass market legitimacy.
Which is, to me, a two times shame. Firstly because Nokia has made all the right moves in open sourcing Symbian and buying/liberalizing Qt as it’s cross platform toolkit of choice, though it’s too little too late. Secondly, because I prefer Moblin (though I know that’s Atom-only).
The only variable I see in this is WinMo, only because I have a sneaky feeling that Microsoft might open source it, which would somewhat put the cat amongst the pigeons.
Indeed, it’s another piss poor attempt because not only do they miss out Nokia – which, let’s face it is Symbian these days – but also RIM. You know, the company whose growth rate and sales are greater that Android and Apple combined.
Here’s how it’s actually going to pan out:
Nokia (Maemo and Symbian), RIM, Android and the rest. The idea that Apple – unless they diversify – will be a major player in the market in the next two years is laughable.
How is it laughable? The problem is that you don’t personally think people will do again what they did before. I’m sure at one point no one thought that Microsoft would loose the momentum that they have had, as far as owning the mobile market, but guess what, they did. Apple was great because they opened up the eyes of Corporate America, and said the people not only want functionality, but appearance, as well. These companies know what the average consumer is looking for now and that is how apple will eventually fall. They can not compete with the multitude of products that will not only do what they do but do it better.
It’s laughable because it’s now one product amongst many. Groundbreaking in 2007/8, not so much now.
I think you agree with that point later in your post.
Whatever “Unless they diversify” means. They haven’t seemed to have much problem staying a major player in the mp3 player market. I don’t see why they wouldn’t use what they learned from that in the phone market.
“They can not compete with the multitude of products that will not only do what they do but do it better.”
The problem is that no one has done it better.
@Mattias
The biggest supplier of mp3 players in the world is Nokia. A phone manufacturer.
The iPhone is a great phone but it’s a fashion item for most buyers and it’s starting to show its age. Diversifying means releasing other products at different price points – an iPhone Nano if you will.
@Michael
T3 and Stuff both have the HTC Hero as 2009’s best phone. There are many options now and the iPhone’s market share is going to start suffering as a result.
I like the premise of google spreading like a virus over mutliple carriers and hardware, but you forget to add that Apple is standing idly by while this is going on, my guess is R& D at apple has plent of funding and has probably ramped up since its competition is awake now.
I think competition is great, at the end of the day we as the consumer benefit from more technologically advanced products.
Im a little biased as a iphone app developer, but I aware that I need to expand to other platforms also.
Great short article!
“Competition is great”.
Yeah, with Google taking over the World – that’s REALLY great…
I rather see Google take Microsoft’s place, then deal with another decade worth of the Windows.
yes.. this decade has been soooo awful because of Windows.. i’d rather kill myself then use windows for another WHOLE decade… omg..
Yeah… why?
You do realise that any company having a virtual monopoly isn’t a particulalry good place to be in, right?
You, are correct R&D is probably going wild but what can they do put out a new Iphone every six months, No. That’s there fundamental flaw, at least there computers offer the consumer more than one choice, but their mobile is one fits all and this just won’t work going forward.
This is quite a prediction and I must disagree.
They will push other OSes and all manufacturers, but rule the roost? I don’t see that without some changes.
It may happen… it may not.
The only thing Im sure is that this article was the worst thing I read today.
Sorry.
I totally agree. This article lacks facts!
Unfortunately the quality and credibility of Techcrunch has gone down. It seems to have become sponsored blog/PR arm.
Yes… sponsored blog for sure…
Android Android Android ten times a day .. so blinded posts that the only answer is that this is a marketing campain…
twitter, twitter, twitter ten times a day. Where is a whole world outside of iPhone, Twitter, Android and Facebook.
teena, this has been discussed ad nauseam, the lack of multi-touch (http://daringfireball.net/2009/02/apple_google_palm) has nothing to do with hardware but rather licensing in the U.S.
I disagree: I think Apple has been very smart to hold tight the reins to the OS used in iPhones. The multiple versions of Android already out on different phones is destined to become the same problem we’ve seen with Microsoft. How many different OSes and IE browsers do we need to support?
Advances are great, but it puts the burden on developers and consumers to know what they have. Apple may seem restrictive, but it raises consumer confidence that what they get from the App Store will actually work on their handset.
Even with a slow App Store approval process, it will be quicker than necessitating developers build 5 different versions of apps to work on the different flavors of Android+handset combinations.
Google should be lucky to position themselves the same way Microsoft did, it worked and still works for them better then Apple.
Last I check, Microsoft still rules the OS roost in the laptop/desktop world, no?
depends on what “rules the roost” means I guess.. is it market share, progressive interfaces and features, user experience or satisfaction?
“…progressive interfaces and features, user experience or satisfaction?”
Windows 7 is doing pretty well in those departments.
Sales and usage. Everything else is irrelevant.
Content is king. Look at the amount of apps for iPhone vs. Android. Why is that? Apple’s controlled delivery model, OS and Phone specs makes it very easy to get content on the phone and get paid for it. Sure Apple’s model has it’s problems but we all know there is no silver bullet. I know as a developer if I want to get something to market then I’m going to pick the path that, in total, cost less. Lets not forget either that there was smart phones before the iPhones with some very interesting features. So I ask why did Apple have success? Again, easy for the developer and easy for the customer to get the content (apps).
I’ll draw a parallel to another industry here. Look at video game market. Majority of the games were release on Windows 10 years ago. Now? The consoles have the games. Why? If you ever talked to a game developer supporting Windows development and the amount of work done in order to make it work on all the different types of computers running Windows and then the non-stop patching after launch you know why. I didn’t buy the Xbox based on system specs, I bought it because it was the only system that ran Halo. Period. Again content is king and Apple is way ahead with 200k+ apps vs. 20k+ for Android.
As for Mac’s, if you check the market share it’s around 8-9% across the board but if you look at the share for computers over $1,000 you will see it’s up in the 80-90% range (http://bit.ly/fZnBo).
Sorry for the long reply.
Err…no.
Sales and usage are king. That’s why Windows dominates the OS market and why everybody writes for it first and other systems after.
Apple have, at best, 5% of the market by sales volume. The fact they charge a lot for their goods is somewhat irrelevant from that point of view.
As for the PC being dead… so what games exactly – give or take the usual few exclusives – don’t also appear on the PC? Oh that’s right. Hardly any and certainly none of the A list titles.
I own a HTC 6800 as well as a HTC Hero. Both phones are similar in functions with the main focus being the alarm clock function being identical from WM 6.5 and Android 1.5. The real jewel is the fact that the open market installs are easy to use compared to anything windows has out currently. I am no fan of anything Apple related after using an iPhone. Over the next few years i can easily see Android topping the market with Windows catching back up with its future releases. Blackberry seems to be falling heavily off as currently it offers subpar performance phones (I had a Blackberry Curve) with their current lineup and what i have seen from future offerings.
Overall i am excited Google joined the ranks in the cellphone market and really enjoy the products they offer.
They better start thinking of how they counter the soon to launch Apple tablet …. a 7-10 inch Android phone/augmented reality/gaming unit/kitchen sink device would be a welcome sight once the Apple Table frenzy starts here in a few weeks.
Why? That has nothing to do with a mobile. People that are going to buy that thing are the same people willing to by a G5 (apple fans), and they will buy it not because they need it but because they are marketed to be needed, to fit in to the Apple world, and so on.
Weak argument. “Product in the pipeline” could have been said about WinMo at one time, whose “days are numbered” now.
And is Blackberry worrying about the Android? Probably not.
End-to-end manufacturers (Apple, Blackberry, etc.) will continue to have the opportunity to innovate and provide extraordinary phones.
Nice thought. Google is definitely going places. But calling the winner already? That’s just blind conjecture.
Well stated.
Why is techcrunch pushing the android platform so much. Slow news day? Lazy reporting. I don’t understand why Mike Arrington is allowing these types of posts. How about a more in depth view into the Android platform and a comparison of how the aquisitons and or deals made by Apple, RIM or Nokia may affect future sales?
I’m a happy iPhone 3GS owner but every other article shouldn’t be iPhone or Android centric to hold my interest. How about some more Blackberry articles or WebOS posts?
Android— meaning robot to get linux on everything. Attack like great Apache warriors. Pay attention to the way products are named. Open source is the way of the future. Open, like open for business. Ready to serve.
Just look at what they did to MOTO! Launch a competing phone on the same network no even six months later
Ref: Motorola Droid — they did have a few months opportunity. It seems in the UK T-mobile at least have rejected as for non-european styling..Moto’s (IMO) seen as a sub-prime brand in phones in recent years so this really was an opportunity to make good, but I think they’ve missed.
Even today in the UK you struggle to find the droid anywhere.
The problem with Motorola is that they design their handsets for the American market and then don’t understand why they don’t work in Europe.
Until they sack their design team and bring some fresh new designers in, then they will continue to lose marketshare in Europe.
Unlike our American cousins, we’re not prepared to put up with big, bulky, butt ugly phones and this has been reflected in Motorola’s relegation from a tier 1 handset supplier to a tier 2 by most of the major carriers.
… And the nokia n95 wasn’t big, bulky , and butt ugly? Most in that series were big and bulky, (butt-ugly being subjective, of course). You doth protest too much.
Windows Mobile 7 really isn’t out of the game. It’s complete revamp and more open OS mean a huge advantage, considering its existing marketshare.
Don’t rule it out until you know enough about it.
Oh, I feel for Symbian.
More doesn’t mean better. Apple has done rather well with one smartphone. BlackBerry is killing Nokia with just a few smartphone models.
*Looks at market share and sales*
Uh… no, no it isn’t.
Is English your first language? This is possibly the worst-written article ever. Really cheapens this publication!
Did you just scribble something to jump on the Android discussion bandwagon?
Really disappointing!
Kevin,
“Is English your first language?” was the first question I had after reading this silly article. Same could be asked of most of the posters…
While the article lacks anything other than unfounded speculation, which is not always bad may I add; there is no need to associate poor writing with non-English natives, many of whom will write much better English than you or I.
No one company will own the market. Those days of market domination are over. To say things like this will make you look silly in a few years.
IMHO, it is too early to talk about who will win the mobile market space. It is good to see some competition coming in for the iPhone. However, the fact that the iPhone set a new trend a couple of years back and it has taken till now for others to simply match the bar set by Apple, simply means that competitors (be it Android or others), need to think way ahead of what they are providing today. I completely agree with the comments provided by some who correctly say that we don’t know what Apple has up its sleeve.
I am sure a company, such as Google probably is also thinking something big, but we need to wait and see. Today, I would still prefer the iPhone over any of the other android phones.
“This is, in the end, why Android will soon rule the roost: carriers can remove functions as it sees fit, thereby creating entirely new versions of the OS and UI for their own purposes.”
Ah, yes, because neutering phones and making people pay a monthly fee for basics like Bluetooth (Verizon) really goes over well after you’ve used a fully-featured smartphone…
Amazing how TechCrunch thrives on articles that reek of fanboyism rather than any real expertise or journalistic skills.
More Pro-google banter? How much are they paying you now TC?
Seriously. How about reporting on some real news instead of trying to indoctrinate us with your faulty theories and ideas.
How about you stop kissing Googles ass and provide some real content.
I’ll still never carry a google device in my pocket.
The only winner out of any good competition is the user…we get better phones & competitive pricing.
Looking fwd to updates from Apple, dells new mobile & HTC’s new android phones.
Android will have to overtake the iPhone / iSlate combo.
Hook ‘em together and walla: tethering (so no data plan necessary to get internet for iSlate).
Shared desktop between iPhone and iSlate for easy rearrangement of iPhone icons + new generation of interactive applications.
Of course, I could just be daydreaming.
I think it’s far too early to make this kind of prediction. The real reason so many handset manufacturers are adopting Android is because it’s the next best thing to Apple’s iPhone. It’s also the cheapest and quickest way to get a usable smartphone out the door. Yet so far, no one has managed to unseat the iPhone. The Android Market isn’t even close to what the Apple Store has become. Motorola, HTC and Google can mesmerize people with fancy new hardware (e.g. the Nexus One), but the for most people (i.e. the rest of us who don’t need to fiddle around with our phone’s OS and for whom security and ease of use are big considerations), iPhone is still king. That said, I think competition is great, and a huge incentive for innovation, but still, to act as if we know who is going to win this is really premature. 2010 will be a very interesting year, but the jury is definitely still out!
This article is just so flat-out WRONG, it’s hard to know where to begin. Not sure what’s going on with the Pro-Android, pro Nexus TechCrunch these days, but one can’t help but wonder about payola or pseudo-cozy Google perks — or something similar, because all signs still point to iPhone pwning Google (and MS and others) for the next several years.
Another sign that Arroganton, err…I mean Arrington & crew continue to fall — and fast.
Over to some real blogs.
Kinda agree, the reason why Android won’t get far is because it’s following the same steps Windows did, and today that’s the reason of its decline vs Apple…
Google’s Android is a solid OS, but flooding the market with android running smartphones isn’t going to make them the king of any arena. It will simply water down phone selection and turn it into another seemingly sea of flip phones and RAZR’s. “Oh, another Android phone…”
In reality, google isn’t in the smartphone business at all, they make a phone OS. So what will they really be gaining?
Taylor made search results => higher incomes through search. Android OS, Chrome OS, are just investments from Google that will increase their future revenue from improved search results. The $ amounts in the search business are massive compare to how little they have invest. That plus “freebie tag & google funboys” makes the magic happen.
much more….
Android’s native application are the means to win against facebook, skype and all the companies that Google wasn’t able to defeat untill now… remember Natscape and IE ?
Android is against every developer becouse Google is a software firm and Android a superior advantages for them…
Apple, Nokia, RIM etc are interested to create the best platform for developers, Google aim to win over all of them with a full control strategy …
Let’s hope Apple has learned from it’s experience restricting their superior desktop OS to it’s own hardware and the lack of market share that got them.
If they forget that lesson, you will be right. But I can’t imagine they’ll make that mistake again.
Who cares about Market Share when you are like Apple sitting on $35 billion (USD) in cash and making more profits than ever. Apple commands the highest profit margins so they can laugh at your high market share and margins.
Repeat after me: Apple doesn’t care about market share any more than BMW cares about how many people buy Fords and Chevys.
Sales good? Profits high? If the answers to both questions are yes, then “market share” simply for the sake of market share can go fly a kite.
You said “The only problem? Google’s control of the OS pipeline. Various sources have complained that Google controls which OS version various manufacturers are allowed to use and the result is a segmented market with potentially fractured OS trees. However, in the end, the carriers and the manufacturers have control over the OS.”
How? I suppose they could prevent the carriers from using the google closed source apps, but other than that, how will google stop a carrier from using a newer version of android?
In time, this is true, but the question is what will happen in the next couple of years with Apple. Remember that Apple controls both the hardware and software and gives it the ability to create a refined product.
I have just returned my N1 and sold my Droid because while the phones are amazing, the integration between the phone and os is still buggy and leads to issues that are user facing. The fact that the N1 has issues with the touchscreen not registering the 4 buttons correctly and one has to press a little above the buttons is one such example. I believe that this will happen more and more since Google can not possibly control every hardware that is released. With so many phones in the pipeline, these issues will occur more and more.
The other thing to consider is that aside from Android, there are not too many SmartPhone operating systems that are as flexible. Windows Mobile seems to be winding down and the Nokia OSs are, well, Nokia. I am leaving Blackberry out because aside from a couple of third party phones, it is really reserved to its devices. Again, control of the OS and Hardware produces great devices such as the Blackberry line.
Is there room for three major smartphone platforms? I believe so. Many business people will remain with Blackberry due to the infrastructure cost of supporting Exchange with the BES and the control aspect. Many people will remain with the iPhone due to its popularity and application catalog (mainly games and entertainment), and the rest will go with the Android.
I’m sorry, I just can’t get the image of exploding blind dogs out of my head – what were we talking about?
I really hope no-one wins. There’s room for a few big players and competition will continue to drive innovation.
I can’t see Palm lasting, but iPhone & it’s legacy, and Android must be here to stay.
S60 is starting to go “down-market” (which IMO makes sense, although I think it could be shortlived/superceeded)
And then there’s maemo. It looks fantastic, but with only Nokia making handsets, and with no *real* open source platform (lots of components, but still proprietry stuff and nokia controlled firmware) I’m not sure it will ever make it beyond a geek phone.(I still may get one!).
Then there’s blackberry. I know they do sell in the UK, but they seem to be firmly in the business/email camp, nowhere else. Bit “staid” ?
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Google has set in motion something that cannot be stopped. Android is only an outlet to push their other products in the cloud. Nevertheless, I’m a big fan of Android and even made a commercial: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8CqMVa6ZeU
Sadly, this proliferation of Android variants will be the kiss of death for Google. It is this explosion of handset and OS variants that made developing mobile content and services an unsustainable hell prior to the arrival – like manna from heaven – of iPhone.
You couldn’t be more wrong. Both approaches work, for different reasons. And both have a different set of limitations.
Umm, your answer is rather content free. Please elaborate.
I’m just saying ‘kiss of death’ is a very strong term. The R&D folks at Google (and Microsoft and Apple, for that matter) are paying attention enough to know the limitations of their approach(es), as well as the repercussions of their decisions. Google may suffer from the proliferation, but they will certainly react and overcome. This is not to say they will “conquer” Apple or Microsoft in the process, only that they will not die.
Despite the one-sided nature of the article, the underlying theme across the commentary seems to be that there will always be competition here. No approach is perfect and the top competitors in this case have deep enough pockets, strong enough partnerships and far enough reach to stay in the game for the foreseeable future.
A company is the people behind it! Look who are the people behing Palm, this battle is Apple Vs. Apple… Specially now with Avadis Tevanian going to elevations
The mobile device is the new PC. Microsoft won’t sit back and do nothing, so they will act. And when their core business is at stake their move will be massive.
I have to disagree – “remove feature as the carrier/manufacturer sees fit” – what it seems people keep assuming is that the average consumer is an intelligent and capable human being that does research and comparison before making there purchase.
They are not – as with the iPhone, people were shocked that Apple would release a new phone after one year after they were “tricked” into signing a two year contract for a cheaper iphone.
If each carrier brands their phone “android!” and then removes functionality – you’ll have a legion of users pissed because there android phone isn’t/cannot do what their friend’s does out of the box.
It’s easy being a techie and acting like everyone thinks like us – but the average user probably will be more pissed off (something they can’t be on Apple’s iPhone, because, well, the iPhone does what Apple wants it to…)
I’m all over the Android’s success, because competition is key in making better phones. I’d also like to see Windows Mobile get a better kickstart down the road too – I don’t want any of the three to dominate, I want them to drive competition so that in the end the USERS win.
/agree
Android will overtake Symbian as the most popular smartphone OS eventually, and Nokia will do good to go Android.
I was thinking in the same patterns about this when I wrote my blog post at http://www.mobisleapps.com/blog/2010/01/why-the-nexus-one-is-a-big-game-changer-for-android/ about what the Nexus One really means for Google and the mobile market. This is just the beginning of Google showing it’s commitment to take over the mobile web in even greater lengths than it has taken over the rest of it. Would love to hear you opinion about it.
I’ll have to agree with the posters criticizing this article. I’m relatively a new reader here, but after reading both this and the review for the Nexus One, I’m quite certain my eyeballs won’t be on this blog very often.
I mean, an article about the “smartphone race” that doesn’t even mention Apple? That draws questionable conclusions from scant evidence? What a joke.
This is total twaddle and works on the assumption that Google’s OS is going to generate demand through availability. Since when has supply driven demand?!
Google are streets behind both Apple and Microsoft when it comes to marketing products. Their critical mass should enable them to overcome this challenge eventually but, if they do achieve smartphone domination, it won’t be for the reasons stated in this article – it’ll be because they developed a better product and/or marketed it better than their competitors and this is a long way away.
Well in some cases supply can drive demand. If because of increased supply prices go down it will push the demand northwards. This happened in India in the telco market in 2002. Reliance communication flooded the market with cheap phones and connections and created a new market for mobile phones all together.
If incase availability of android on numerous phones drives down the price of smartphones in general. it can increase demand. A free Android can go a long way in making it possible to create a new market segment altogether.
I love my HTC Hero on Sprint, but every time one of my apps stops working after I update it, or another one bombs, or the icons don’t work no matter how hard or how many times I press, I think to myself, “I can’t wait for the iPhone to be available on anything other than AT&T.
We’ve been saying the same thing at DNN for months, people are finally starting to listen: the phone one company controls and they only release one phone a year? Will lose to the phone anybody can make, and everybody is.
“The only problem? Google’s control of the OS pipeline. ”
Not really a problem, and pretty simple when you investigate it. It’s three-tiered: at the bottom, anybody can use Android to build anything, don’t even have to ask Google. You get nothin’ with that, though: can’t use the Google apps, can’t use the non-open part of the Android branding (the blue “ANDROID,” basically), no support whatsoever, etc.
Second tier is you can do whatever you want with the OS, put a new UI on it, change or control the Android Market, you get core Google apps, but you don’t get Google’s name or brand, and support shifts to you somewhat.
Third tier is Google’s name is on the phone, which means you get everything and you can’t change anything – stock UI, hands off the Market, etc.
Or roughly that – contracts are not my specialty.
At any rate, when we started DNN, I knew one other guy around here with an Android phone. Now I know a couple dozen people, and growing. Some of them are Macheads. A couple traded in their iPhones. None of them is complaining about the alternate UI they purchased or lack of access to apps or whatever. The people I know who bought Cliqs bought it for that Motoblur UI I’d hate and they love it. The people who bought Eris or Hero love that Sense UI, and again, it’d drive me nuts.
So I got a third-tier phone with the stock OS, because that’s the one for me. We’re all happy with our choices.
Spinning choice as “fragmentation” is pretty easily refuted. And if you want to see actual fragmentation, read the history of Java ME. A few years back, things got so bad there they actually implemented a VM to run on top of all the proprietary stuff on various devices for app consistency, and within weeks, there were multiple VMs, tailored to many different devices.
*That’s* fragmentation, and that’s what ain’t happening, not even close, with Android.
I just have more choices, and so do all my friends.
This article was written sitting at a bus stop, no facts to back anything up, nothing remarkable in the nexus, i do not think anyone will pay 600 bucks for a live wall paper, also look at the deal over 300 bucks to google if you break your contract thats besides the carrier contract, I do not see tech crunch writing about that, I am sorry buddy but this is not an honest posting.
no one will win . the fact that there is a race is the real win. anxiously waiting for nokia and RIM to jump in the race
i wouldnt rule out microsoft. they have so much in terms of resources and the market for smartphones is so massive and immature, that they have every incentive to pour a huge wedge of their windows profits into it.
not to mention all of the windows software, from office to the myriad of pc games, that developers must find windows mobile (or whatever its called now) the easiest to port to.
Admittedly, there will never be a “ruler of the roost,” especially since the roost is always changing…but if there could be a ruler, who would you bet your life savings on? Apple, Google or Microsoft?
I am betting the underdog too if MS has any talent left. Microsoft can just copy what Apple has done in the UI level. Most Microsoft devices already have same features except they are geek domain. I have had GPS on my phone with street names in voice for over 2 yrs now.
So just a nice review of their UI coupled with Windows 7/Silverlight/Bing/XBox connectivity/use the damn 10% facebook ownership…its a done deal!!
While this article may have some Google “fanboyism” (girls can’t be fanatic about products?) in it, I would like to note that many of the comments have the same kind of tone but for the iPhone.
I think the article is correct, though; it may be lacking cold, hard “facts,” but it makes the good point that open platforms are likely to prevail in the mobile phone industry because of the desire of the companies to “customize” (to euphemize) the phones according to their “needs.”
Of course, how long it takes for the open platform to prevail is an open question…
“Of course, how long it takes for the open platform to prevail is an open question…”
Quite. Linux is still poised to take over the desktop… any decade now.
It’s funny to see those trying to predict the future, yesterday it was iPhone/Apple, the day before it was Windows Mobile/RIM and the week before Symbian and a month before Brew. And now we have you saying Android will be King.
The reality is some what different, the reality is handset market is and will remain fragmented. The exercise to predict a winner is somewhat futile and just reveals how little you know about the mobile market. Today’s star is tomorrow bottom feeder and to believe Windows as lost a race that as not even started (we are just in the warm up if you ask me) is way too early.
Appreciate the OS for what it is… but prediction at this point is way too early.